DeliriusEspontanius

So after watching The Sting, to some it came as no surprise that Varrick was up to something. He clearly planned that bomb and Mako is right on his trail. 

Which leads to the question: how much is Varrick involved in this war? 

As we all know, Varrick is introduced as a funny, eccentric billionaire who controls the entire shipping business. Upon Unalaq's invasion, the harbor lock down prevents Varrick's ships from continuing their work

A meeting is scheduled in Senna and Tonraq house to discuss their displeasure with the NWT's invasion.

Korra tries to convince the crowd that Unalaq is only trying to help the south restore balance with the Spirits and shows concern that the SWT is even thinking about going to war.

Varrick does have a knack for stirring up a crowd, doesn't he? (spirit of Independence- crowd goes wild) and  is convinced Unalaq is after his wealth. 

Korra: You want to start a war?

They come to the conclusion that if Unalaq doesn't back down, they'll be forced to fight for their freedom. 

May I also point out that while he sits in his throne, it's his soldiers attitude toward the SWT what is getting everybody all worked up. 

So Korra agrees to talk to her uncle, all for the sake of stopping all this before it gets out of hand but Varrick doesn't seem to have much confidence in the Avatar. 

He wants this war to happen.

Unalaq agrees that Korra must prevent the war but she must remain neutral. She tells her uncle about the meeting in her parent's houseseeking for help/advice. 

Unalaq: You will naturally want to help your people but you must not show favoritism. It will only make matters worse. 

(Don't make this personal Korra. But what turn of events makes Korra take sides?)

Now here is my theory that Unalaq does not benefit from all this. He speaks of opening the portals and people using it as means of transportation. Good way to coming back and forth and keeping an eye on both tribes.

Mmm, Harry Potter's vanishing cabinets?

If Korra does succeed in opening both portals, it would put an end to Varrick's business wouldn't it?

Why take a week or months voyage when you can get there in a few minutes using the portals and possibly use them to send merchandise as well

A war would set an imbalance between spirits and men, therefore interfere with his plans. Nonetheless, Unalaq is confident that Korra will be able to stop the conflict. (Score one for Unalaq)  

It's natural for Varrick to be threatened by all this. So threatened that he will do whatever it takes to put an end to Unalaq's plans.

And what does he do? Proceeds in taking the NWT Chief hostage.

Now I'm sure from here on my theory might get a bit unrealistic, so don't take this too seriously .

There's more to Varrick than meets the eye and always plans ahead.

I don't think he planned to succeed with this hostage. It would only lead to Korra searching for her Uncle and possibly save him. After all this, she would still remian neutral and continue to work next to Unalaq. 

Which brings up the question

• Did he count on Senna to tell Korra about his plans of abducting Unalaq so she could catch the them on the act?
• And (this is just another silly thought) Plan the meeting at their house, knowing Unalaq would have to place his own brother under arrest because of it.

Let's not forget at this point, Korra, thinking her own father is involved in this plan, is still willing to let them go, Why? Because this act will lead to war.

So up to this point, she's still neutral and convinced this is not the answer.

Unalaq, outraged by all of this, sends his men to find Varrick and have them all shipped straight to jail 

That would certainly give the south motives to continue the rebellion and Korra knows this so she suggest they stand a fair trial instead. 

Unalaq knows his brother wasn't involved in the act, yet he places him under arrest. Why? Because he was the one who hosted the meeting and it was in their house where these men probably made all the necessary plans for Unalaq's kidnapping. 

Unalaq was probably going to find a way to get Tonraq out of the way and then this opportunity comes. He's going to take it. (All thanks to Varrick?)

In Civil Wars part II 

Varrick gives Bolin money stating Unalaq's trial is all a set up

Now that's a very big accusation, isn't it?

So how does Varrick know this and what else does he have on Unalaq?

Theory: Varrick has spies. (That's how he knows of Unlaq's plans to use the portals) Can't have that now, can we?

 It concerns me that neither Asami and Bolin questioned Varrick on this matter. Bolin went to that trip with Korra and has seen with his eyes own eyes that Unalaq has been nothing but supportive with the Korra. (granted, there's a reason behind it all)

But does he go along with this because he knows about their past? Has Unalaq given Bolin some kind of evil vibe to believe in Varrick's words? 

If Mako had been in the room, would he have questioned this?

So Varrick knows about the trial, he must know that the judge is on Unalaq's side. So why hand Bolin money to pay a judge that will definitely not betray his king.

Is this a plot to gain their trust?

So the trial goes on:

• Punishment by death
• Korra threatens judge
• Unalaq pleads for another punishment. 
• Wins the Oscar for best performance.
• Korra is relieved but still not satisfied with the resutls

Notice how she went after the judge instead of trying or planning to break her father free again?

Why?

Because she's still trying to keep peace within the tribes and probably try to convince the judge (and by the looks of the aproach) using force and fear to get him to change the sentence.

Not the best way to do it. But she's still, in a way, trying to use the law instead of breaking it. 

And he just spills the beans, doesn't he? That Unalaq staged the whole thing. 

"Oops I…did I say too much?"

He certainly did. And you've got the Avatar's full attention now. 

Again, Varrick knew the whole trial was staged by Unalaq. Does he also know  about the so called invasion that got Tonraq exiled from the NWT? 

Perhaps he already knows about the Portals that may or may not put an end to his entire business. Do you think he's going to sit there and wait to see what happens?

No. He's going to do everything in his power make sure Korra defies her Uncle. And what better way to do so than pay the judge (probaly offer him a large amount of money made from  the war) to get him to say the truth. 

So now Korra knows Unalaq:

• used and lied to her.
• betrayed his own brother
• her Father.
• Plans to keep him locked up for good.
• Separated her family.

Well now it's personal.

Therefore, with the help of her friends and Varrick, Korra frees her father.

And with that, her uncle is forced to start a war between both tribes.

The war Varrick wanted in the first place.

Up to this point, Unalaq is more worried about the portals than Tonraq. Why? Unalaq motives are still not revealed. (and it's driving me insane!

____________

In R.C, the NWT building is bombed, clearly trying to frame Unalaq for this.

What did Unalaq say in the throne room?

That if a war breaks between both tribes, the other nations will be forced to take sides.

Does Varrick plan for an even bigger war. Why else would he plan a bomb on that building.

He want R.C to go to war.

It's been six months since Amon's attack. Do you think the president is even going to consider leading another one when R.C is just recovering form the last one? 

Nope. 

Raiko even tells Mako the Avatar stop taking Varricks bad advice.

So here are some speculations:

Varrick will take advantage of Korra's disappearance to say that Unalaq set the spirits on her, giving the south and its leader, Tonraq, more reasons to go up against Unalaq.

Varrick already has Bolin wrapped around his finger with all the money and fame.

He also got to Asami before Mako could.

Does Mako plan on telling both of them about Varrick?

Maybe Bolin which will lead up to him taking Varrick's side, accusing Mako of being jealous of all the attention he's getting, all this leading to a feud between both brothers. 

I can just see Varick trying to convince Bolin of just that and some speech where Mako has never trusted Bolin's judgement.

"Prove him wrong" Varrrick says as he hands Bolin something.

In the end. Bolin will learn the hard way he'd put his trust in the wrong people.